FHA claims raising down payments to 5% could cause “double dip” price decline!

The Federal Housing Authority, which insures the vast majority of mortgages being made today, is set to claim in testimony to Congress today that raising the required down payment for 3.5% to 5% could cause a double dip price decline.  The FHA has seen mounting losses in defaults on mortgages that the agency insures.  It is under pressure to change its underwriting standards to increase down payments as a way to protect taxpayers which guaranty the funding of the FHA.

However, it claims that increasing the down payment amount will drastically reduce its loan volume.

Responding to critics, officials of the Federal Housing Administration are set to warn in Congressional testimony Thursday that a double-dip decline in housing prices may result from even a slight increase in minimum down payments on FHA-backed loans.

An increase in down payments to 5%, from the current minimum 3.5%, would limit new FHA-backed loans by 40%, equivalent to 300,000 fewer home sales, according to testimony that FHA Commissioner David Stevens is set to deliver on Thursday.

“We share the goal of increasing equity in home purchase transactions, but determined after extensive evaluation that such a proposal would adversely impact the housing market recovery,” Mr. Stevens says in his testimony. – WSJ

If I understand that correctly, that means that at least 40% of the loans that the FHA is insuring have only 3.5% down and the buyers could not purchase if they had to come up with 5% down.  Wow, with price declines in some markets near 40% and most markets seeing 20% price declines, I would think 5% down would be a no-brainer.

I am a bit surprised to learn that would mean 300,000 fewer home sales and the dreaded double dip decline.  Please comment on whether that sounds right to you or not.

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Bear Mountain Golf Course Opening early this year!

The Bear Mountain Golf Course will be opening on March 12th for the season.  In their own words:

Bear Mountain Ranch will open Friday March 12

It is time to get your golf clubs out of the closest, dust off your golf shoes and prepare yourself for a great 2010 golf season.

We are excited to announce Bear Mountain Ranch golf course will open for the 2010 golf season EARLY! Early as in this Friday March 12. That’s right. We are opening almost 3 weeks earlier than normal.

To celebrate our opening, we are offering a special rate of $40 per player prior to 1:00 pm and $30 per player after 1:00 pm. All rates include golf car, range balls and tax. Take advantage NOW! Rates valid through the month of March.

Tee times can be made by calling (877) 917-8200 or on-line at bearmt.com.

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Update on the “In-Lieu Fee Mitigation Program” for shoreline projects at Lake Chelan

I received an e-mail from Mike Kaputa, the Director of the Chelan County Natural Resources Department, yesterday about happenings on shoreline issues.  Here’s what he had to say about the shorelines plan update, mitigation programs and large woody debris:

  1. In-Lieu Fee Mitigation Program
    1. We are nearing completion of a draft prospectus for the In-Lieu Fee Program for the Corps of Engineers to review in early March.  Once we are certain that we are following the right format, we will distribute a review draft for the agencies and general public to review in May.
    2. Commissioner England and I attended the Lake Chelan Reclamation District meeting this morning, and the District authorized the County to work with their staff to develop preliminary designs for a mitigation project at the “Welcome to Manson” sign property.
  2. Large Woody Debris
    1. A handful of LWD structures around the lake that were identified as hazardous or improperly-placed may be removed this season.  More details to follow in a Department of Ecology news release.
    2. Landowners who are required to install LWD as mitigation this year may be able to delay that requirement through a permit modification.  We are hopeful that we will develop the in-lieu fee program in time for those landowners to participate in it next year.  Please contact me if you are interested or know someone who might be.
  1. Watershed Planning:  There are several draft documents that need additional review.  We will schedule the watershed planning meeting to coincide with the next meeting of the LWD Forum.
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Are Private Transfer Fees the Developer’s tool for more affordable housing?

Private Transfer Fees are fees that are required to be paid each time a property is sold at closing.  The transfer fee is attached to the property as a covenant that can run for a fixed period, often 20 or 100 years.

The Private Transfer Fees can be securitized and sold such that a developer can get needed financing up front for mandated infrastructure that benefits owners of the property for many years.  The buyer of the property benefits because the property can be sold at a lower price since the first buyers into the development don’t have to pay for 100% of the infrastructure costs.

Private Transfer Fees, or reconveyance fees, have also been used as mitigation to pay into land trusts and even been placed on private homes to add to the household’s future income stream.

I posted more on Private Transfer Fees on Bloodhoundblog.

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New Federal Program could put downward pressure on home prices

A new Federal Program aimed at mitigating the “foreclosure crisis” is scheduled to start April 5th.  The program pays those behind in their payments to sell at a loss and gives them some pocket cash for the trouble.  I expect this program will put downward pressure on prices.  If you’re considering selling your home this season, be aware of this program.  For those who have already taken advantage of the market upswing we’ve seen this winter, congratulations for getting things done!

The “new” approach is to help those in trouble get out of their homes by streamlining the short sale process and adding requirements that will force banks to accept many more short sales.  Basically, the feds will pay owners to sell at a loss and give them a little cash in the process.

Starting April 5th, hundreds of thousands of delinquent borrowers will be encouraged to sell their homes through this process.  Since the basic laws of economics still apply, that flood of inventory at fire sale prices will create heavy downward pressure on other homes on the market.  Prices should fall.

That’s just one problem with this approach… – Bloodhoundblog

Consider it just another way the government is helping you out!

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NWMLS sees Northwest Real Estate Market Recovery

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service, which covers 21 counties in Washington and has over 24,000 agent members, believes the market performance they are seeing indicates that the real estate market in the Northwest is recovering.  In January, the state added an estimated 12,400 jobs, which is the first monthly gain since November 2008.

“We are entering what is traditionally our busiest home selling season,” said NWMLS director OB Jacobi, general manager of Windermere Real Estate Company. “With the first job increase since 2008 and closed sales in King County up about 45 percent, there is every indication that our market is in recovery,” he added. Jacobi reported “significant traffic” at open houses, which he attributes to the first-time homebuyer tax credit and rising consumer confidence.

Pending sales (offers made and accepted, but not yet closed) jumped nearly 45 percent last month compared to a year ago, marking the 11th straight month of month-over-month increases. Twelve of the 21 counties in the MLS market area reported double-digit gains in pending sales, led by San Juan County (up 85.7 percent), Snohomish County (up nearly 71 percent) and King County (up nearly 63 percent).

Closed sales also outperformed year-ago totals, rising 33.5 percent. Members tallied 3,214 completed transactions last month, up from the 2,407 closed sales for February 2009.

Prices, while showing signs of stabilizing, still lagged year-ago figures. Area-wide, the median price for last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums (combined) was $260,000, down about 6.5 percent from a year ago. The median price for single family homes (excluding condos) dipped 4.6 percent, while condo prices declined nearly 9 percent.

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Washington State Leading among states with high bank failures!

Washington State has had more bank failures than any other state so far in 2009 with Rainier Pacific in Tacoma being the fourth bank in Washington shut down so far.  Meanwhile, the overall bank failure rate nationwide continues to accelerate.

Agent Genius took a look at bank failures by state and also compiled a list of banks shut down so far in 2010.  Here’s an excerpt:

In 2007, only 3 banks were on the FDIC’s bank failure list (aka the FDIC shut down their operations), in 2008 there were 25 banks closed, but 2009 ended with 130 banks failed! If that isn’t startling, note that by March 3 of 2009, 16 banks had closed, but as of today, 22 banks have closed in 2010, a 37.5% acceleration rate over 2009. If the current rate of bank failures continues, 2010 could see over 178 failed banks. – Agent Genius

To see which banks are in trouble, the best information I’ve found is at Banktracker.  Banktracker tracks the troubled asset ratios of banks.  Generally, if the troubled asset ratio is over 100, the bank is considered stressed.

To understand which deposits at a bank with FDIC insurance are covered, please visit the FDIC on the web.

FDIC insurance covers all types of deposits received at an insured bank, including deposits in a checking account, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) account, savings account, money market deposit account (MMDA) or time deposit such as a certificate of deposit (CD).

FDIC insurance covers depositors’ accounts at each insured bank, dollar-for-dollar, including principal and any accrued interest through the date of the insured bank’s closing, up to the insurance limit.

The FDIC does not insure money invested in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, life insurance policies, annuities or municipal securities, even if these investments are purchased at an insured bank.

The FDIC does not insure safe deposit boxes or their contents.

The FDIC does not insure U.S. Treasury bills, bonds or notes, but these investments are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. – FDIC

There are limits to FDIC coverage and deposits over those limits may not be reimbursed by the FDIC.  So, check your bank’s health and make sure that all of your bank deposits are insured!  There will be fewer banks around this time next year!

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A visual look at where the TARP money went!

Understanding TARP 400x174 A visual look at where the TARP money went!

Curious where all that $787 billion in TARP funds went?  So were the people at www.visualeconomics.com.

The put together this detailed look at TARP.  TARP is one of the biggest financial bailouts in history, yet nobody seems to know where the money went.  If you’re curious, click the picture of link.

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Boeing: “Any workplace is not an entitlement”

The Seattle Times has an article where they interviewed Jim Albaugh, chief executive of Boeing Commercial Airplanes on Monday.  He said that the Northwest is Boeing’s preference on where they would like to build future planes, but:

But he attached a condition: The Puget Sound region will be favored only if the Machinists union moderates its future wage demands and avoids strikes.

“This is where our people want to live. This is where we want to be. We’ve had a great partnership with the people of Washington, and I hope it continues for a long, long time,” he said. “I caveat that by saying, it’s going to be a much more competitive environment out there in the future. And work anyplace is not an entitlement.” – Seattle Times

He also said that the next plan after the 787 would determine the future of Boeing’s manufacturing in Washington. That future would depend on two things:  One, no strikes; and two, lowered escalation of wages in the future .  Those issues will remain deal breakers for placing future work here.

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Lake Chelan Real Estate Sales up through February!

The Lake Chelan Residential Real Estate Report is out for February!  The news is not nearly as dismal as the national news has been so far.  Year to date, 13 homes have been sold through the end of February as compared to 11 last year.   The average sale price for the year is down from $579,176 in 2009 at the end of February to $503,602 this year.  Last year a waterfront home sold for $2.7 million during the first part of the year that skewed the average above the roughly $408,000 that became the average sale price for all of 2009.  Check out the complete report!

So, sales transactions are up a bit and the average sale price so far is well above where last year ended.  Waterfront homes and community waterfront sales by transaction are also above last year’s rate.  Lake Chelan homes and properties are selling!  If you need to sell a Lake Chelan home, now might very well be the best time for quite awhile!

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