Builders Optimism on the Rise!

The National Association of Home Builders housing optimism index rose to 25 points in January from 21 points in December.  That is the high water mark since June of 2007 and the fourth monthly increase in a row.

While the housing market is not out of the woods — foreclosures remain a persistently stubborn issue, while home prices have yet to stabilize and mortgages lenders remain picky — this reading comes amid other positive signals for the hard-hit sector. Builders say traffic and orders are increasing, while the NAHB’s Improving Markets Index boasted 76 markets in January, up from 41 in December.

Shares of home builders have risen dramatically in recent weeks, buoyed by the so-called “hope trade” that bets stocks will rise ahead of the spring selling season. Those gains continued Wednesday, with Hovnanian Enterprises climbing 5.6%, while building giant Pulte gained 4.3%.

Helping fuel today’s increase is that all three components of the builders’ index increased. Builders’ assessment of traffic from potential buyers and current sales conditions both struck their highest level since June 2007, while builders’ expectations for sales over the next six months rose to the highest point since September 2009. - WSJ

I expect we will see improving sales numbers for January in a few weeks as well.  Buyers are coming back out, but they are very value conscious. There is a general feeling that this is the, or very near the, bottom of the housing market with record low interest rates.  That is bringing out buyers who don’t expect to see that combination again in their life times.

Stay tuned.  There are still lots of dangers, from foreclosures, Europe, Iran and even our own federal government.  But it is sure nice to see some optimism.

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Kiplinger 2012 Home Price Prediction

Kiplinger is predicting the bottom of the housing market in 2012.  They report that prices will stop declining this spring, after a 2% or so additional drop.  Slowly throughout the year that 2% will come back, ending the year about even.

The growth in 2013 won’t be dramatic. Come 2013, expect home prices to rise 3% to 4%, not too far from the pre-boom average of 4.8% a year, but well short of the bounce that usually follows a housing slump. After the milder housing downturn in the early 1980s, home prices grew an average of 6.5% for six years.

A key signal that the bottom is near is a change in the ratio of average homes prices to personal income — houses are affordable again. After soaring to 4 to 1 during the housing boom, the ratio is now well below the long-term average of 3 to 1. – MSN

Volume of home sales is expected to grow modestly as well, to 5.5 million sales in 2012.  That would be an increase of 4% of 2011, which was a 50+ year record low in sales volume.

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Average Waterfront Home prices drop from $902,000 in 2010 to $595,000 in 2011

Pacific Appraisals Snapshot Report for the fourth quarter of 2011 is out for the Lake Chelan area.  Their report looks at a smaller area than my Lake Chelan Residential Real Estate Summary.

The most striking thing from the report is the drop in waterfront home prices in the last year.  In 2010, waterfront homes average sale price was $901,195 and the median price was $850,000.  In 2011 the waterfront homes average sales price dropped to $595,299 (-34%) and the median waterfront home price was $565,000 (-34%).  In 2009, the average and median Lake Chelan waterfront home prices were well over $1 million.

Higher priced home sales were a challenge last year.  In 2010, there were several individual Lake Chelan waterfront home sales over $2 million.  This year, there were less than a handful just over $1 million and none higher.

In the area that the Snapshot covers, home sales dropped 19% by dollar volume and 23% by transaction volume in 2011.  Manufactured homes and homes on acreage were up 40% and 75% by sales transactions over 2010.

For a little more perspective on home prices my observation is waterfront homes that sold in the $600k and $700k range in 2011, most would have easily sold in the $1.2 to $1.6 million dollar range 5 years ago.

 

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Democrats, Independents and Republicans like mortgage deduction according to Home Builders Association

The National Association of Home Builders conducted a survey of Americans from 1500 likely voters in swing states using both Democratic and Republican polling firms.  The survey was conducted January 2nd to the 5th.

73% of survey respondents opposed eliminating the mortgage deduction completely.  77 percent of Republicans, 71 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Independents were all opposed to doing away with the tax deduction.

The home builders also found that 96 percent of respondents in this survey are happy with their decision to own and even 84 percent of underwater homeowners agreed. Owning their own home is “very important” to 78 percent of respondents and 68 percent of those that do not yet own a home said homeownership is a goal of theirs.   That is a higher satisfaction with home ownership than other recent surveys have shown.

 

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Chase CEO says the bottom of the housing market is here or near

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC that he thinks housing is “at or near the bottom.”   He does not expect contraction in his mortgage division.

Dimon gives a hopeful outlook for the future, noting that companies are doing okay and they want to expand and grow and while he alludes to the current administration as irrational, Chase plans to continue expanding organically and plans to continue to grow. Dimon notes that the company is still quite healthy, and although underwriting is tight, they still have a mortgage volume of $10 billion per month. – AGBeat

Mortgage rates are expected to remain low in 2012 with the volume of mortgages expected to be somewhere around the amount in 2011.

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Expectations on home prices improve according to Fannie Mae survey

Fannie Mae does a monthly survey on consumer sentiment of about 1000 adults.  Its December survey responses show an improvement in the expectations for home prices in the next year, with expectations for them to rise by 0.8%, up from 0.2% in November.

22% of respondents now believe that the U.S. economy is on the right track which is a  6-percentage-point jump from November.  40% or those polled expect their personal finances to strengthen in the next year.

Of course, the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

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2012 and housing? Here are the issues

Many of the articles and postings on what will happen in 2012 have an agenda behind them, and a predictable agenda based on that agenda.

Where the housing market will go in 2012 nobody really knows.  While there have been some good signs that things could improve, there are still dangers out there and the market is starting from a position of the biggest hammering in history!

There is a good, relatively balanced, article in the Wall Street Journal today that outlines the five major issues seen by the author.  It also has an online poll in which, at this point, 81% of the respondents believe the housing market will either be flat in 2012, or see further price drops!

Trying to figure out where the housing market is headed in 2012 offers a strong sense of déjà vu: The market feels just as it did at the beginning of 2011, when many pundits optimistically predicted that housing would finally hit bottom. The housing market didn’t deteriorate in 2011, but it didn’t firm up either amid an economic recovery that struggled to find its footing.

So what does 2012 hold? For one, the story will be local. While many housing markets rose together during the boom and fell together during the bust, they’re exiting the downturn at different speeds, and so it’s not very useful to talk about a “national” housing market.

With that caveat in mind, here’s a look at five key issues… – WSJ

Foreclosures, interest rates, qualification for mortgages and the wild card of regulation and government are all virtually certain to be a big part of the real estate story in 2012.  Localized demand, pricing, foreclosures and the local employment picture will drive what happens in each market.  Most of those things paint an encouraging picture for the Lake Chelan market.  But, if the national news is strong enough in any direction, few local markets will escape it.

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Pending Contracts exceed new listings for 2nd month in the NWMLS

I don’t normally get too excited about the claims about “pending” agreement claims by the NWMLS.  They often don’t track very well with actual sales and often seem to be a way to deflect news about poor sales and price drops.

But the latest press release on December sales claims pending volume exceeded the number of new listings (4,604) for the second consecutive month. The last time such an imbalance occurred was November 2006.  So, new listings seem to be staying at a low level while we have an active buyer’s market, particularly in the Puget Sound.

Closed sales also outgained year-ago totals. December’s completed transactions were up 7 percent from twelve months ago, rising from 4,430 closings to 4,741. Six counties registered double-digit gains (Grays Harbor, Jefferson, Pacific, Pierce, San Juan, and Snohomish).

Prices were down in December.  The median price for December’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums declined about 11.8 percent from a year ago, dropping from $255,000 to $225,000. Brokers attribute much of the slip in prices to the number of distressed properties in the mix. In some areas, foreclosures and short sales, which tend to be sharply discounted, account for about one-third of sales.

Inventory is coming down.  Brokers across the Northwest MLS service area, which encompasses 21 counties, added 4,604 new listings last month, down from the year-ago total of 5,460 listings. With those additions, there were 26,639 active listings in the MLS database at month end, a drop of more than 5,500 listings from a year ago (a 17.2 percent decrease).  For the Seattle area, inventory is down 30 percent compared to a year ago.

Overall inventory levels are at 5 months, a fairly balanced market.  Some areas of Snohomish and King counties have inventory levels in the 3 month range.

2011 is the first year in several that there haven’t been tax incentives skewing the market, so it is good to see it stabilizing somewhat.  2012 should prove to be an interesting year.

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Sellers are reluctant in the current market

Buyers are seeing mortgages at 4 percent and housing prices that are at or near the lowest of the current down cycle.   They see it as a great time to buy.  But home owners in general don’t see this as a great time to sell even though a home can be sold for a predictable price in a reasonable time frame.  That has not been the case for much of the last several years.

The Research Institute for Housing America published a study showing 80 percent of consumers see it as a great time to buy a home, but 92% of current owners see it as a poor time to sell.  This is called “negative selling sentiment.”

Gary Engelhardt, the Syracuse University Economist who did the study, notes that many homeowners have not adjusted their price expectations downward to the current market.  That confirms a study done by Zillow in 2011 that found most homeowners didn’t think housing market price reductions applied to their homes.

Zillow found that people who had purchased their homes in 2007 or later thought their homes were worth about 14 percent more than their actual sales value. People who bought homes before 2002 were slightly more realistic but still overvalued their houses by about 12 percent.

Many home owners are sitting out the current market rather than selling.  That is leaving the market open to those who have to sell, to move, due to divorce or are downsizing.  It also leaves two tiers of homes in most MLS systems, those that are priced to the market and those that are horribly over priced.  The owners willing to price to the market can definitely get their homes sold as there are buyers out there looking.

What do real estate agents do with sellers who want too much for their homes?

Mike Litzner, broker-owner of Century 21 American Homes on New York’s Long Island, says “it’s all about educating them. We try to show them the comparables” — the recent selling prices of similar houses in the area.

“If sellers really want to sell,” he says, “they adjust their expectations to the changed realities.” If they adamantly refuse, Litzner says his agents often decline the listing rather than waste weeks or months trying to market an overpriced piece of real estate.

Howell says his firm’s agents sometimes walk away from unreasonable listing-price demands, but also use a technique that essentially seeks to bridge the seller-buyer divide: pre-authorized price-reduction clauses embedded in the listing contract that ratchet down the asking number.

The initial reduction kicks in within the first two to three weeks if the house fails to attract buyer interest.

“It works,” said Howell in an interview. “And both sides stand to benefit.” – SeattleTimes

The other approach that is pretty common is agents go ahead and take the overpriced listing.  They put it on the MLS system, but don’t really do much more to market the property.  They hope that eventually the home owner will adjust their expectations to the market and lower the price enough to sell.  Of course, the home owner is paying expenses for the home they no longer want all that time.  The housing market has been continuing to see declines in prices.  The net effect of that approach has been home owners who end up getting far less for their homes with a stale listing, after sometimes paying years more in payments, taxes, insurance and maintenance, than the could have gotten had they priced their home properly to begin with.  Nobody wins except possibly the real estate agent in those cases.

There are proven methods to get the most for your home in a reasonable time frame, if a seller is willing to price their home appropriately.  In large markets, it is easy to show lots of comparable sales that can without much doubt demonstrate the value of a home.  In a small market like Lake Chelan there are far fewer comparable sales.  Even so, there are methods to assure you get the best price possible in the market for your home.  Contact us for help selling your Lake Chelan home.

 

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2011 Home Sales down $4 million at Lake Chelan

Home sales at Lake Chelan shrunk in dollar volume from $49,657,000 in 2010 to $45,196,000 in 2011, about an $4 million decline year to year.  The number of homes sold actually increased, from 147 to 151 in 2011 according to the Lake Chelan Housing Market Report.

Average sales price declined 11.4%, from $337,802 in 2010 to$299,314 for 2011.  Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales, were 30.5% of the total number of homes sold last year and 26% of the dollar volume of home sales.

At the peak of the market in 2006, home sales at Lake Chelan were over $85 million for the year at Lake Chelan.

The average price of a sold waterfront home at Lake Chelan dropped from $865,000 to $564,000 in 2011.

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